Determine Valid Breakout Part 2
On entering any trade or investment based on a
price pattern breakout, it is important to
decide ahead of time what type of price action
would cause you to conclude that the breakout
was a whipsaw.
F
or example,
electric utilities are very stable in their
price action compared to mining stocks where
the volatility is far greater. Applying the same
percentage breakout rule to both obviously
doesn't make sense. What constitutes a decisive
breakout, where the odds of a whipsaw are
considerably reduced is then very much a matter
of personal judgment based on experience,
trial, and error. This judgment should take into
consideration such factors as the type of trend
being monitored, the volatility of the security,
volume, and momentum characteristics.
A
nother factor
that can help early on in deciding if a breakout
is valid lies in the fact that a good breakout
should hold for several periods. For example,
you may observe a decisive upside breakout from
a rectangle on a daily chart, but if it cannot
hold for more than 1 day above the breakout
level, the signal is highly suspect. Often the
technical position is worse after such
breakouts. This is because breakouts that cannot
hold indicate exhaustion, and exhaustion moves
are often followed by strong price trends in the
opposite direction to that indicated by the
(false) breakout.
On entering any
trade or investment based on a price pattern
breakout, it is important to decide ahead of
time what type of price action would cause you
to conclude that the breakout was a whipsaw.
A
n
example might be a break below a previous minor
low, a decline below a predetermined level from
the breakout point. A stop should then be placed
below such a pivotal point. In this way,
you will have calculated the loss you are
willing to undertake and the point where the
original premise for the trade; that is, the
breakout is no longer operative.
Failure to make
such a decision ahead of time will mean that
your decision to sell is more likely to be based
on emotion and knee jerk reactions to news
events than on a logical preset plan.