Know Sure Thing (KST) Overview Part 1

Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is reflecting the primary swings of business cycle, the formula is weighted so that the longer and more dominant time spans have a larger influence.

Clearly, one Rate of change (ROC) time span taken on its own does not give a complete picture. This was one of the factors that considered when designing the Know Sure Thing (KST). Another was wanted an indicator that fairly closely reflected the major price swings over the time period under consideration, primary trends for monthly charts, short-term trends for daily charts, and so forth.

The most important thing is for the indicator to reflect the primary swings, the formula is weighted so that the longer, more dominant time spans have a larger influence.

Compares the performance of the smoothed 24-month Rate of change (ROC) to the long-term Know Sure Thing (KST). It is fairly self-evident that the Know Sure Thing (KST) reflects all of the major swings being experienced by the smoothed 24-month Rate of change (ROC).

However, the Know Sure Thing (KST) turning points develop sooner than those of the Rate of change (ROC). In every instance, the Know Sure Thing (KST) turns ahead, the lead time varying with each particular cycle.

The dominant time frame in the Know Sure Thing (KST)'s construction is a 24-month period, which is half of the 4-year business cycle. This means that the Know Sure Thing (KST) will work best when the security in question is experiencing a primary up- and down­trend based on the business cycle.